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ZEW: Wirtschaftsaufschwung setzt sich fort

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen für Deutschland sinken in der Umfrage vom Juli 2021 um 16,5 Punkte und liegen aktuell bei 63,3 Punkten. Die Erwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate sind damit nach wie vor auf einem sehr hohen Niveau. Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland verbessert sich erneut sehr stark und beträgt im Juli 21,9 Punkte, 31,0 Punkte mehr als im Vormonat. Die wirtschaftliche Situation in Deutschland wird nun ähnlich eingeschätzt wie Anfang 2019. Die Lagebeurteilung ist erstmals seit zwei Jahren positiv.

„Die Normalisierung der Wirtschaftsentwicklung geht weiter. Der Lageindikator für Deutschland hat inzwischen den Corona-bedingten Rückgang klar hinter sich gelassen. Obwohl die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen abermals deutlich zurückgehen, befinden sie sich noch auf einem sehr hohen Niveau. Die Finanzmarktexpertinnen und -experten rechnen daher in sechs Monaten mit einer überdurchschnittlich positiven gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lage“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, Ph.D. die aktuellen Erwartungen.

Auch die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexpertinnen und Finanzmarktexperten an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone gehen im Juli zurück. Sie liegen jetzt bei 61,2 Punkten. Dies entspricht einem Rückgang um 20,1 Punkte gegenüber dem Vormonat. Der neue Wert des Lageindikators beträgt 6,0 Punkte. Der Lageindikator ist um 30,4 Punkte gegenüber Juni 2021 angestiegen.

Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet gehen um 10,0 Punkte zurück. Allerdings rechnen noch mehr als 75 Prozent der Expertinnen und Experten mit einem weiteren Anstieg der Inflation im Eurogebiet auf Sicht von sechs Monaten.

Quelle und Grafik: ZEW

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