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ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen vorsichtig optimistisch

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland verbessert sich in der aktuellen Umfrage ebenfalls. Der Wert des Lageindikators nimmt um 2,1 Punkte zu und liegt damit bei minus 8,1 Punkten.

„Der Konjunkturausblick für Deutschland verbessert sich im Februar erneut, trotz wachsender wirtschaftlicher und politischer Unsicherheiten. Die Finanzmarktexpertinnen und -experten rechnen mit einer Entspannung bei den Corona-bedingten Einschränkungen und einer Konjunkturerholung im ersten Halbjahr 2022. Sie gehen weiterhin von einer zurückgehenden Inflation aus, allerdings langsamer und von einem höheren Niveau aus, verglichen mit den Erwartungen der Vormonate. Als Folge rechnen inzwischen mehr als 50 Prozent der Expertinnen und Experten mit einer Erhöhung der kurzfristigen Zinsen im Eurogebiet in den nächsten
sechs Monaten“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, PhD die aktuellen Erwartungen.

Die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexpertinnen und Finanzmarktexperten an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone sinken im Februar um 0,8 Punkte. Sie liegen damit aktuell bei 48,6 Punkten. Der neue Wert des Lageindikators beträgt 0,6 Punkte. Der Lageindikator ist damit um 6,8 Punkte gegenüber Januar gestiegen. Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet steigen in der aktuellen Umfrage um 3,6 Punkte. Der Inflationsindikator liegt damit bei minus 35,1 Punkten. 53,2 Prozent der Expertinnen und Experten gehen von einem Rückgang der Inflationsrate auf Sicht von sechs Monaten aus.

Quelle und Grafik: ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH / Foto: Fotolia

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