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Ukraine-Krieg und Pandemielage in China bremsen deutsche Wirtschaft weiter aus

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Gegenüber April hat sich das Barometer kaum verändert und liegt weiterhin deutlich unter seinem neutralen Wert von 100. Der Krieg in der Ukraine, aber auch die chinesische Coronakrise treffen die deutsche Wirtschaft spürbar und befeuern die Inflation. Auch global zeichnet sich eine gedämpfte wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ab, von der Deutschland als exportorientierte Volkswirtschaft merklich betroffen sein dürfte. „Angesichts des schwierigen Umfelds hält sich die deutsche Wirtschaft zwar noch gut. Dennoch wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im zweiten Quartal wohl vorübergehend etwas schrumpfen,“ sagt Guido Baldi, DIW-Konjunkturexperte.

Vor allem die deutsche Industrie ist von den Auswirkungen der internationalen Krisen betroffen. Die schon seit der Pandemie bestehenden Lieferengpässe können sich kaum entspannen und sorgen für einen anhaltenden Mangel an Vorprodukten und Rohstoffen. „Der Produktionsstau im verarbeitenden Gewerbe löst sich nur langsam, so dass der hohe Auftragsbestand nur schleppend abgearbeitet werden kann,“ so Laura Pagenhardt, DIW-Konjunkturexpertin. „Dazu kommt, dass der Fluss neuer Aufträge in dem aktuell unsicheren konjunkturellen Umfeld nachgelassen hat und das Geschäftsklima trübt.“

Bei den Dienstleistungen ist die Lage besser. So beleben die Lockerungen der Corona-Schutzmaßnahmen und das Frühlingswetter den Tourismus und die Gastronomie. Dieser Erholungsprozess läuft allerdings schrittweise aus. Immer mehr beeinträchtigen zudem die ökonomische Unsicherheit und die starke Teuerung die Kauflust der Menschen. Die Entlastungspakete dürften die Inflation nur vorübergehend etwas dämpfen. „Entscheidend für die Konjunktur und die Inflation sind momentan der weitere Verlauf des Krieges in der Ukraine und die chinesische Pandemiepolitik“, sagt Baldi.

Quelle und Grafik: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin)

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