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Pandemie-Schäden – Corona kostet 300 Milliarden Euro BIP

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Mehr als 13 Prozent der Deutschen sind vollständig geimpft, die Inzidenz sinkt, in einigen Regionen ist Normalität wieder möglich. Das macht Hoffnung. Die Wirtschaft wird allerdings Jahre brauchen, bis Verluste und Verwerfungen ausgeglichen sind. Allein bis Ende Juni 2021 wird Corona insgesamt schon 300 Milliarden Euro Schaden verursacht haben.

Die Corona-Pandemie verliert zwar nach und nach ihren Schrecken, allerdings hat sie gravierende Spuren hinterlassen. Insgesamt schrumpft das BIP zwischen Januar 2020 und Juni 2021 um 300 Milliarden Euro, zeigen neue IW-Berechnungen. Grundlage für die Rechnung ist die Modellierung einer intakten Wirtschaft ohne Corona und der Vergleich mit der realen Entwicklung.

Dabei entstand vor allem während des ersten Lockdowns im Frühjahr 2020 ein Schaden von rund 100 Milliarden Euro. Weitere 140 Milliarden Euro Verluste ergeben sich seit dem Lockdown im Herbst 2020 bis Ende Juni 2021. Dabei sorgen nicht nur die Schließung von Einzelhandel, Restaurants, Hotels und Kultureinrichtungen für den enormen Einbruch, sondern auch indirekte Folgekosten: So mussten beispielsweise Autohersteller in mehreren europäischen Werken die Bänder anhalten, weil Halbleiter derzeit Mangelware sind. Ohne sie sind technische Komponenten wie digitale Tachos undenkbar. Die stillstehende Produktion wirkt sich spürbar auch auf die Konjunktur aus.

Erholung wird Jahre dauern

Immerhin machen die zunehmenden Impfungen Hoffnung. "Die Impfgeschwindigkeit nimmt endlich zu, das ist ein nicht zu unterschätzendes Signal an die Wirtschaft", sagt IW-Direktor Michael Hüther. "Trotzdem dürfen wir nicht der Illusion erliegen, dass die Krise keine Spuren mehr hinterlässt. Ohne Corona wäre die Wirtschaft weitergewachsen. Es wird Jahre dauern, bis die Verluste und die strukturellen Verwerfungen ausgeglichen sind."

Quelle: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft e.V. / Foto: Thommy_Weiß_pixelio.de

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