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Krieg, Inflation und chinesische Lockdowns belasten deutsche Wirtschaft

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Damit liegt es deutlich unter seinem neutralen Wert von 100 Punkten. Zu den direkten Auswirkungen des Krieges in Form hoher Energiepreise und des Wegfalls von Exportmärkten kommen die Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich des weiteren Verlaufs des Krieges und eventueller weiterer Sanktionen etwa im Energiebereich. Auch wenn sich die Lage der deutschen Wirtschaft nach dem Schock der ersten Kriegswochen nun wieder allmählich erholen dürfte, ist für das laufende zweite Quartal bestenfalls mit einem geringen Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts zu rechnen. „Die Risiken für die deutsche Wirtschaft sind derzeit enorm,“ sagt Guido Baldi, DIW-Konjunkturexperte. „Eine weitere Eskalation des Krieges und eine Verschlechterung der Energieversorgung, etwa weil Erdgaslieferungen ausbleiben, würden die deutsche Wirtschaft zusätzlich stark belasten.“

Vor allem die deutsche Industrie durchlebt aktuell schwierige Zeiten. Die ohnehin in Folge der Corona-Pandemie und des Ukraine-Krieges bestehenden Lieferengpässe werden durch die Null-Covid-Strategie und erneuten breitflächigen Lockdowns in China weiter verschärft. „Die Auftragsbücher sind zwar voll,“ sagt Laura Pagenhardt, DIW-Konjunkturexpertin, „aber der Materialmangel ist gravierend und nimmt weiter zu. Vielerorts ist die Produktion stark beeinträchtigt und die Aufträge können nicht abgearbeitet werden.“

Die Dienstleistungen sind von den internationalen Spannungen weniger betroffen. Zudem wirken die zunehmenden Lockerungen der Corona-Schutzmaßnahmen hier belebend. Vor allem bei den konsumnahen DienstleisterInnen, die – wie etwa im Gastgewerbe – unter den Corona-Infektionswellen besonders gelitten hatten, ist ein Aufwärtstrend zu verzeichnen. „Allerdings verringert die hohe Inflation die Kaufkraft und bremst so die Zuwächse beim Konsum“, so Baldi.

Quelle und Grafik: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

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