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Krieg in der Ukraine

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die bislang erwartete konjunkturelle Erholung wird geschwächt. Es droht Stagflation, also eine Kombination aus schwachem Wachstum und hoher Inflation. Die Geldpolitik steht vor einem Dilemma: Zinserhöhungen können die Inflation zwar eindämmen, würden das Wachstum aber weiter dämpfen. Die Finanzpolitik bewirkt ebenfalls wenig: sie kann die Lasten steigender Preise umverteilen, aber nicht aus der Welt schaffen.

Mittelfristig führt die Diversifizierung der Energieversorgung zu mehr Versorgungssicherheit, aber auch höheren Energiekosten. Deutschland als Standort für energieintensive Industrien droht an Boden zu verlieren. Steigende Militärausgaben sind notwendig, erfordern aber langfristig Steuererhöhungen und Kürzungen öffentlicher Ausgaben in anderen Bereichen. Die Weltwirtschaft zerfällt in einen amerikanisch und einen chinesisch dominierten Block, mit Russland und den EU-Ländern als Juniorpartnern. Größter Verlierer ist Russland, aber auch in Deutschland wird der Wohlstand sinken.

Quelle: ifo Institut / Foto: marketSTEEL

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