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Konjunkturerwartungen nahezu unverändert

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland geht ebenfalls leicht zurück und liegt aktuell bei minus 47,6 Punkten, 1,8 Punkte unter dem Wert des Vormonats. Lageeinschätzung und Erwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate bleiben damit ungefähr auf dem niedrigen Niveau des Vormonats.

„Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen verschlechtern sich im August noch einmal leicht, nach einem sehr starken Rückgang im Vormonat. Die Finanzmarktexpertinnen und-experten erwarten somit für Deutschland eine weitere Verschlechterung der ohnehin schwachen Konjunktursituation. Die nach wie vor hohe Zunahme der Konsumentenpreise und die erwarteten zusätzlichen Kosten für Heizung und Strom belasten derzeit vor allem die Aussichten für die konsumnahen Wirtschaftsbereiche. Die Einschätzungen für die Finanzbranche verbessern sich aufgrund der erwarteten festeren Geldpolitik“, kommentiert Dr. Michael Schröder, Wissenschaftler im ZEW und Leiter der Umfrage „ZEW-Finanzmarkttest“, die aktuellen Ergebnisse.

Die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexperten und Finanzmarktexpertinnen an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone gehen im August um 3,8 Punkte zurück. Sie liegen damit aktuell bei minus 54,9 Punkten. Der Lageindikator steigt hingegen um 2,4 Punkte auf einen neuen Wert von minus 42,0 Punkten.

Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet steigen in der aktuellen Umfrage um 2,1 Punkte. Sie liegen mit minus 23,5 Punkten jedoch nach wie vor deutlich im negativen Bereich
und zeigen damit an, dass auf Sicht von sechs Monaten ein Rückgang der hohen Inflationsraten angenommen wird.

Quelle und Grafik: ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH

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