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Konjunkturerwartungen brechen ein

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen für Deutschland brechen in der aktuellen Umfrage vom Juli 2022 um 25,8 Punkte auf einen Wert von minus 53,8 Punkten ein. Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland geht ebenfalls sehr stark zurück und liegt aktuell bei minus 45,8 Punkten, 18,2 Punkte unter dem Wert des Vormonats. Lageeinschätzung und Erwartungen sind damit sogar etwas unter den Werten, die sich im März 2020 zu Beginn der Coronakrise ergaben.

„Die aktuell großen Sorgen über die Energieversorgung in Deutschland, der angekündigte Zinsanstieg der EZB sowie weitere coronabedingte Einschränkungen in China führen zu einer erheblichen Verschlechterung des Konjunkturausblicks. Die Expertinnen und Experten bewerten die aktuelle Wirtschaftslage deutlich schlechter als im Vormonat und senken ihre ohnehin ungünstige Prognose für die nächsten sechs Monate weiter ab. Besonders stark gehen die Erwartungen für energieintensive und exportorientierte Wirtschaftssektoren zurück, aber auch der private Konsum wird deutlich schwächer eingeschätzt“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, PhD, die aktuellen Erwartungen.

Die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexperten und Finanzmarktexpertinnen an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone stürzen im Juli um 23,1 Punkte ab. Sie liegen damit aktuell bei minus 51,1 Punkten. Der Lageindikator reduziert sich um 18,0 Punkte auf einen neuen Wert von minus 44,4 Punkten. Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet steigen in der aktuellen Umfrage um 6,8 Punkte an. Sie liegen mit minus 25,6 Punkten nach wie vor deutlich im negativen Bereich.

Quelle: ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH / Foto: Fotolia

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