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Europäischer Bau wächst künftig schwächer

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Das zeigen Berechnungen der Forschergruppe Euroconstruct, der das ifo Institut angehört. „Die stärksten positiven Impulse gehen vom Tiefbau aus“, sagt ifo-Experte Ludwig Dorffmeister.

In Deutschland kommt der Wohnungsneubau zunehmend unter Druck. „Zu den Hauptgründen zählen die erheblich verteuerten Wohnungsbaukredite, stark gestiegene Baukosten sowie die Rückführung der Neubauförderung des Bundes“, sagt Dorffmeister. Nach den Ergebnissen der ifo-Umfrage im Dezember waren die Auftragsbestände zwar weiter auf hohem Niveau, aber sie fielen den fünften Monat in Folge. Notwendige Neuaufträge blieben aus. „Für private Bauherren und Wohnungsunternehmen haben sich die Rahmenbedingungen drastisch verschlechtert“, sagt Dorffmeister. Dennoch dürften die negativen Folgen dieser Entwicklung wegen der langen Realisierungszeiten vorerst nur bedingt auf die Bauaktivitäten durchschlagen. Insbesondere das Ausbaugewerbe wird aufgrund der Kapazitätsengpässe in den kommenden Monaten noch gut zu tun haben.

Der Ausblick für den europäischen Wohnungsbau hat sich nach zwei sehr guten Jahren deutlich eingetrübt. Im Zeitraum 2023 bis 2024 wird die Bautätigkeit um insgesamt fast 3 Prozent abnehmen und erst 2025 wieder leicht zulegen. Der Rückgang des Neubauvolumens im laufenden Jahr um 2 Prozent geht dabei auf die vielfältigen wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs zurück. An den Einbußen im Bestandssektor in den Jahren 2023 und 2024 hat dagegen die Absenkung der zuletzt äußerst freigiebigen staatlichen Sanierungsförderung in Italien maßgeblichen Anteil. „In den meisten europäischen Ländern dürfte allerdings der zurückliegende Energiepreisschock dazu führen, dass mehr in die Wohnungsbestände investiert wird“, sagt Dorffmeister.

„Das Tiefbauvolumen wird von einer Reihe großer Herausforderungen getragen“, sagt Dorffmeister. Notwendige Investitionen in die Energieversorgung, den Ausbau von Transportwegen und in öffentliche Verkehrsangebote lassen den Tiefbau 2023 um 2,9 Prozent steigen, 2024 um 1,8 Prozent und 2025 um 2,2 Prozent. Die größten Zuwächse werden für Italien, Norwegen, die Slowakei und Polen erwartet. Nur in Finnland wird der Markt schrumpfen.

Quelle und Grafik: ifo Institut / Foto: marketSTEEL

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