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Erwartungen verharren auf niedrigem Niveau

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland verschlechtert sich in der aktuellen Umfrage erneut deutlich. Der Wert des Lageindikators sinkt um 9,4 Punkte und liegt damit bei minus 30,8 Punkten. Dies ist der zweite Rückgang in Folge seit Beginn des Kriegs in der Ukraine.

Erwartungen und Lageeinschätzungen stellen sich aktuell ähnlich dar, wie zu Beginn der Corona-Pandemie im März 2020. Die Erwartungen für die Inflationsrate in Deutschland sinken in der aktuellen Umfrage um 43,4 Punkte auf einen Wert von 26,8 Punkten.

„Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen verharren auf niedrigem Niveau. Die Expertinnen und Experten gehen davon aus, dass die aktuelle wirtschaftliche Lage schlecht ist und sich noch weiter verschlechtern wird. Ein kleiner Lichtblick ist der Rückgang der Inflationserwartungen, wodurch der erhebliche Anstieg des Vormonats etwa zur Hälfte kompensiert wird. Die Aussicht auf eine Stagflation in den kommenden sechs Monaten besteht jedoch nach wie vor“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, PhD die aktuellen Erwartungen.

Die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexpertinnen und Finanzmarktexperten an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone sinken im April um 4,3 Punkte. Sie liegen damit aktuell bei minus 43,0 Punkten. Der neue Wert des Lageindikators beträgt minus 28,5 Punkte. Dies entspricht einem Rückgang des Lageindikators um 6,6 Punkte zum Vormonat.

Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet sinken in der aktuellen Umfrage um 43,6 Punkte. Der Inflationsindikator liegt damit bei 25,9 Punkten. 47,5 Prozent der Expertinnen und Experten gehen von einem Anstieg der Inflationsrate auf Sicht von sechs Monaten aus

Quelle und Grafik: ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH

 

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