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Erwartungen steigen leicht, bleiben aber deutlich negativ

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland verschlechtert sich in der aktuellen Umfrage erneut. Der Wert des Lageindikators sinkt um 5,7 Punkte und liegt damit bei minus 36,5 Punkten. Dies ist der dritte Rückgang in Folge seit Beginn des Kriegs in der Ukraine.

Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen und die Lagebeurteilung weisen nach wie vor auf eine Verschlechterung der deutschen Wirtschaft in den nächsten sechs Monaten hin. „Die ZEW Konjunkturerwartungen nehmen in diesem Monat leicht zu, bleiben jedoch auf einem relativ niedrigen Niveau. Verglichen mit dem vorangegangen Monat ist der Ausblick auf die wirtschaftliche Lage in Deutschland damit etwas weniger pessimistisch. Die Expertinnen und Experten gehen zwar weiterhin von einer Verschlechterung aus, allerdings mit einer geringeren Intensität. Die erheblichen Corona-Einschränkungen in China führen zu einer deutlichen Verschlechterung in der Beurteilung der dortigen Wirtschaftssituation. Dies ist eine schwere Bürde für das zukünftige Wirtschaftswachstum in Deutschland. In der aktuellen Umfrage geht eine große Mehrheit der Expertinnen und Experten von einer Anhebung der kurzfristigen Zinsen durch die EZB in den nächsten sechs Monaten aus. Entsprechend rechnen sie mit einem Rückgang der Inflationsrate von ihrem gegenwärtig sehr hohen Niveau“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, PhD, die aktuellen Erwartungen.

Die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexperten und Finanzmarktexpertinnen an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone steigen im Mai stark um 13,5 Punkte an. Sie liegen damit aktuell bei minus 29,5 Punkten. Der Lageindikator fällt auf einen neuen Wert von minus 35,0 Punkte. Dies entspricht einem Rückgang des Lageindikators um 6,5 Punkte zum Vormonat. Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet sinken in der aktuellen Umfrage um 36,5 Punkte auf minus 10,6 Punkte.

Quelle: ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH / Foto: Fotolia

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