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Erwartungen der Automobilbranche eingebrochen

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Der russische Angriff auf die Ukraine erhöht die Preise für Öl und Gas. „Das weckt Befürchtungen in der Branche, dass der Absatz an Neuwagen sinken könnte. Gleichzeitig steigen auch in der Autoproduktion und entlang der Lieferkette die Energiekosten“, sagt Oliver Falck, Leiter des ifo Zentrums für Industrieökonomik und neue Technologien.

Die Autohersteller beurteilten auch ihre aktuelle Lage schlechter als noch im Februar. Der Indikator fiel auf minus 13,5 Punkte, von plus 28,3 Punkten im Februar. „Der Mangel an Vorprodukten verschärfte sich weiter. Ukrainische Lkw-Fahrer fallen aus, weil sie jetzt in ihrem Land kämpfen müssen. Das bringt die Logistik ins Stocken. Außerdem fehlen zentrale Bauteile z.B. Kabelbäume“, sagt Falck. Die Preiserwartungen erreichten ihren historischen Höchststand von 86,0 Punkten, nach 77,9 im Februar.

„Der russische Absatzmarkt hat für die deutschen Autohersteller nur eine geringe Bedeutung“, ergänzt Falck. Die Auftragsbücher blieben weiter gut gefüllt, und der Nachfrageindikator stieg auf 37,5 Punkte, nach 17,5 im Februar.

„Die Zulieferer werden die Rohstoffkrise auf breiter Linie spüren“, sagt Falck. Die Erwartungen fielen auf minus 37,9 Punkte, nach minus 6,2 im Februar. Die Auftragsbücher sind dünn, und die Nachfrage fiel im März wieder, von 9,8 auf minus 7,5 Punkte. Die Produktionserwartungen wurden zurückgenommen, von minus 0,7 Punkte auf minus 28,1 im März. Es sollen in den nächsten Monaten keine neuen Stellen geschaffen werden.

Quelle: ifo Institut / Foto: Fotolia

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