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Erneuter Anstieg der Konjunkturerwartungen

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Dies ist der fünfte Anstieg in Folge und der zweite Monat mit einem inzwischen deutlich positiven Wert.

Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland verbessert sich ebenfalls erneut, dieses Mal vergleichsweise kräftig. Sie liegt aktuell bei minus 45,1 Punkten und somit 13,5 Punkte über dem Wert des Vormonats. Dies ist der vierte Anstieg der Lageeinschätzung in Folge. Allerdings befindet sich der Wert dennoch weit im negativen Bereich.

Auf Sicht von sechs Monaten erwartet mittlerweile ein großer Teil der Befragten eine Verbesserung der konjunkturellen Lage. Die gegenwärtige Situation wird allerdings nach wie vor als relativ schlecht eingeschätzt. Es sind – wie schon im Vormonat – die verbesserten Ertragseinschätzungen der energie- und exportorientierten Branchen sowie der konsumnahen Wirtschaftsbereiche, die für den Anstieg sorgen.

Die Erwartungen für die langfristigen Zinsen steigen ebenfalls und der Branchenindikator für Banken erklimmt den höchsten Wert seit dem Jahr 2004“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, PhD die aktuellen Ergebnisse.

Die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexpertinnen und -experten an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone verbessern sich im Februar ebenfalls erheblich. Sie steigen um 13,0 Punkte und liegen aktuell bei 29,7 Punkten. Der Lageindikator steigt um 13,2 Punkte auf einen neuen Stand von minus 41,6 Punkten.

Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet bleiben im Februar nahezu konstant mit einem Wert von minus 83,4 Punkten.

Quelle und Grafik: ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH

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