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Deutsche Wirtschaft schrumpft im ersten Quartal

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die deutsche Wirtschaft steht unter dem Eindruck des russischen Überfalls auf die Ukraine. Viele wirtschaftliche Kennziffern erfassen die Folgen der Invasion aber längst noch nicht umfassend, weshalb sich das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) noch ganz gut hält, aber bereits deutlich trüberen Zeiten entgegenblickt. Darauf deuten nicht zuletzt die jüngsten Wirtschaftserwartungen der Unternehmen hin. Zudem dürfte die deutsche Wirtschaft bereits im ersten Quartal des Jahres 2022 leicht geschrumpft sein. Im zweiten Quartal wird der Krieg und die damit einhergehende wirtschaftliche Belastung wohl noch stärker durchschlagen.

Nachdem sich die Lieferengpässe des vergangenen Jahres zu Beginn des laufenden Jahres allmählich zu lösen schienen, dürften nun neue Verwerfungen die Industriekonjunktur bremsen: Neben der Verknappung wichtiger Agrar- und Industrierohstoffe im Zuge des Krieges in der Ukraine behindern auch erneute Corona-Lockdowns in China den Welthandel. Das Konjunkturbarometer hält sich mit aktuell 106 Punkten zwar noch in etwa auf dem Niveau des Abschlussquartals 2021, in dem die deutsche Wirtschaft ebenfalls bereits geschrumpft war, dürfte aber schon bald deutlich fallen.

Positiv trägt derzeit die rasche Belebung der konsumnahen DienstleisterInnen, etwa im Gastgewerbe, bei. Diese hatten unter den Corona-Infektionswellen seit Beginn des vergangenen Herbstes gelitten, schlagen aber seit Januar wieder einen spürbaren Aufwärtstrend ein.

Quelle und Grafik: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

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