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Deindustrialisierung der deutschen Autobranche durch E-Mobilität

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die Autoindustrie hat seit 2013 laut Zahlen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit 9% Fertigungsberufe eingebüßt. Das schreibt Oliver Falck, Leiter des ifo Zentrums für Industrieökonomik und neue Technologien in einem aktuellen Aufsatz im ifo Schnelldienst. „Wir sehen momentan eine Deindustrialisierung der Autobranche, die durch den Wandel zur E-Mobilität zustande kommt. Ein Teil des Verlusts wird bereits und könnte in Zukunft noch mehr durch Batteriefertigung, Dienstleistungen im Bereich Software oder digitale Geschäftsmodelle aufgefangen werden“, erläutert er. Entscheidender für das künftige Fertigungslevel deutscher Hersteller seien jedoch die Verschiebungen im Wettbewerb – vor allem mit China und den USA.

Rund 447.000 Beschäftigte stellten 2019 Produkte mit Verbrennertechnik her. Diese sind unmittelbar von der Umstellung von Verbrennungs- auf Elektromotoren betroffen – unter anderem weil Elektromotoren in der Herstellung weit weniger komplex sind als Verbrenner. „Noch produzieren die Autohersteller parallel Fahrzeuge mit beiden Antriebsarten. Mit dem Abbau dieser Doppelstrukturen wird sich der Beschäftigungsabbau in der Fertigung in den kommenden Jahren weiter beschleunigen“, sagt Falck. Die Anzahl der Beschäftigten im IT-Bereich sei seit 2013 um knapp 49% gestiegen.

Die Beziehung zu China und den USA in einem veränderten geopolitischen Umfeld bestimme die künftige Position der deutschen Autoindustrie im Wettbewerb und damit auch die Produktionsvolumina, sagt Falck. Mit Tesla hätten die USA derzeit den größten Elektroauto-Produzenten der Welt auf dem Markt. Gleichzeitig fertigten deutsche Autobauer in China deutlich mehr Fahrzeuge als in Deutschland. Auch die Bedeutung chinesischer Unternehmen in der Produktion nehme zu: Immer mehr einheimische Wettbewerber drängen auf dem chinesischen Markt. Die chinesischen Produzenten BYD oder SAIC gehören bereits zu den Top 10 der weltweit größten Elektroauto-Produzenten.

Quelle: ifo Institut / Foto: Fotolia

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