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Das fallende Angebot der OPEC+ sollte den Ölpreisen Unterstützung geben.

von Angelika Albrecht

Laut Commerzbank Rohstoffexperten werden Anfang kommender Woche Reuters und Bloomberg die Umfragen zur OPEC-Produktion im Oktober veröffentlichen. Diese dürfte gemäß dem Beschluss der OPEC+ geringfügig gefallen sein, bevor sie im November deutlich stärker gedrosselt wird. Die Abweichung der Produktion vom vereinbarten Ziel dürfte weiterhin beträchtlich ausfallen, meint die Commerzbank, da viele OPEC-Länder ihr Produktionsziel schon seit Monaten deutlich verfehlen. Allein Nigeria und Angola produzierten im September gut 1 Mio. Barrel pro Tag weniger als vereinbart, die anderen Länder knapp 300 Tsd. Barrel pro Tag. Das ist auch der Grund, warum die Produktionskürzungen im November nur etwa halb so hoch ausfallen werden wie auf dem Papier steht. Dennoch geht die Commerzbank davon aus, dass sich der Ölmarkt daraufhin anspannt, zumal aufgrund des Anfang Dezember in Kraft tretenden EU-Ölembargos das Ölangebot aus Russland ebenfalls zurückgehen dürfte. Die Analysten der Commerzbank sehen daher den Brentölpreis auf dem aktuellen Niveau von rund 96 USD je Barrel gut unterstützt.


Quelle: Commerzbank AG / Commerzbank Commodity Research / Vorschaubild: fotolia

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