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Ausblick der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen verschlechtert sich

von Hubert Hunscheidt

Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage für Deutschland verschlechtert sich in der aktuellen Umfrage erneut. Der Wert des Lageindikators fällt um 19,9 Punkte und liegt damit bei minus 7,4 Punkten. Zum ersten Mal seit Juni 2021 befindet sich die Lageeinschätzung wieder im negativen Bereich.

Gegenüber dem Vormonat hat sich der Ausblick auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der nächsten sechs Monate erheblich verschlechtert. „Die deutsche Wirtschaft leidet spürbar unter den neuen Entwicklungen der Corona-Pandemie. Nach wie vor bestehende Lieferengpässe belasten Produktion und Einzelhandel. Der Rückgang der Konjunkturerwartungen zeigt, dass die Hoffnung auf ein wesentlich stärkeres Wachstum im nächsten halben Jahr geringer wird. Besonders die Ertragserwartungen exportorientierter und konsumnaher Branchen werden schlechter beurteilt“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, PhD, die aktuellen Erwartungen.

Die Erwartungen der Finanzmarktexpertinnen und Finanzmarktexperten an die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Eurozone steigen im Dezember geringfügig um 0,9  Punkte. Sie liegen damit aktuell bei 26,8 Punkten. Der neue Wert des Lageindikators beträgt minus 2,3 Punkte. Der Lageindikator ist damit um 13,9 Punkte gegenüber November gesunken.

Die Inflationserwartungen für das Eurogebiet gehen in der aktuellen Umfrage abermals sehr stark zurück. Der Inflationsindikator liegt jetzt bei minus 33,3 Punkten, 19,0 Punkte unterhalb des Vormonatswertes. 54,6 Prozent der Expertinnen und Experten gehen inzwischen von einem Rückgang der Inflationsrate auf Sicht von sechs Monaten aus.

Quelle und Grafik: ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH / Foto: Fotolia

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