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Abwärtstrend der Preise europäischer Stahlcoils hält an

von Hubert Hunscheidt

MEPS beobachtet in einer Reihe von Fällen, das die Stahlwerke zu oder unter den Grenzkosten der Produktion verkaufen. Damit wollen sie Lücken in ihren Auftragsbüchern schließen, überschüssige Lagerbestände an Rohstoffen und Fertigstahl nutzen, zur Deckung der Fixkosten beitragen und Cashflow generieren.

Dennoch schieben die meisten Kunden in Europa ihre Käufe auf, da sie das Material nicht sofort benötigen. Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass die Lagerbestände bei Händlern und Endverbrauchern bis Anfang/Mitte September ausreichend abgebaut werden, um eine deutliche Belebung der Kaufaktivitäten und eine anschließende Preisbelebung in der Zeit unmittelbar nach den Sommerferien zu bewirken.

Die Lagerbestände waren in den ersten Monaten des Jahres 2022 relativ hoch, bevor kriegsbedingte Panikkäufe zu einem weiteren Anstieg führten. Der Abbau der Lagerbestände verlief langsamer als erwartet, da sich die Wirtschaftstätigkeit verlangsamt hat. Um den Markt wieder ins Gleichgewicht zu bringen, fahren die europäischen Hersteller von Flacherzeugnissen ihre Eisen- und Stahlwerke herunter, schließen Walzstraßen, führen Kurzarbeit ein und drehen die Hähne ihrer Betriebsöfen herunter.

Es sind wohl einige Einkäufer der Meinung, dass die Preise für warmgewalzte Coils in Europa ihren Tiefpunkt erreicht haben und sich nach Lieferungen für Ende 2022/Anfang 2023 erkundigen, in der Hoffnung, das Angebot zu den derzeitigen relativ günstigen Preisen zu sichern.

Obwohl der Konsens auf einen leichten Anstieg der Basiswerte bis Oktober hindeutet, bezweifeln einige Lagerhalter aber die Nachhaltigkeit eines solchen Anstiegs aufgrund des erwarteten wirtschaftlichen Abschwungs. Die kurzfristigen Aussichten für den Markt sind äußerst ungewiss.

Mehrere Faktoren könnten die künftige Entwicklung der europäischen Stahlpreise und der Nachfrage drastisch beeinflussen. Dazu gehören der niedrige Wasserstand des Rheins, Engpässe bei der Gasversorgung, der anhaltende militärische Konflikt in der Ukraine und die steigende Inflation in Europa.

Quelle: MEPS International Ltd. / Foto: marketSTEEL

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